McCain-Palin (Davis Manafort)
In that Newsweek piece (noted below), which details Rick Davis's continuing financial ties to mega-lobby firm Davis Manafort, Mike Isikoff reveals that in addition to paying Davis's salary directly to Davis Manafort, the McCain campaign has paid almost a million dollars to 3eDC, a web development company, part owned by Davis.
That's a decent chunk of change for web development. So TPM Reader UB looked up 3eDC's website. And as you can see, for a firm in the business of billing $1 million for high-end design work, their own website appears to be one of those off-the-rack professional firm template sites you can by for $19.99.
I'm not saying it's Jukt Micronics exactly. But 3eDC's existence as an actual company seems rather thin.
Now, digging around a little, I notice that 3eDC is pretty closely tied to Davis Manafort. Not only, as Newsweek notes, does the company share an address with Davis Manafort. Last year, US News got Davis to admit that the company has two owners -- Rick Davis and Paul Manafort.
And there's a bit more. According to a July 2007 article in the Wall Street Journal, 3eDC was a "start-up ... with one customer -- the [McCain] campaign." The Journal further reported that within the campaign it was understood that 3eDC was essentially a pass-through, that it had a series of other 'partner firms' that did the actual work.
Perhaps not surprisingly, in June, the Post's Matthew Mosk reported that shortly after McCain took over the Republican National Committee in his role as de facto nominee, 3eDC resurfaced with its second client to date -- the Republican National Committee -- with a contract potentially worth as much as $3 million.
So to cycle back, how we got into all this was trying to figure out whether Rick Davis had really cut his ties with Davis Manafort. The question most people have been asking is whether Davis was still drawing a salary. What it seems like now, however, is that Davis has born poring tons of McCain campaign money back into Davis Manafort -- either by having his campaign salary paid to the firm or by having huge consulting accounts set up for paper companies owned by Davis and Manafort. In either case, the question seems no longer to be whether Davis still draws a salary from Davis Manafort but whether McCain-Palin 2008 and Davis Manafort are even distinct organizations.
--Josh Marshall
Is Nationalization The Answer?
Brad DeLong says it's a better option than the Paulson model bailout. (And it did seem to work out pretty well for the Swedes when they got into a somewhat similar situation.)
I'm curious what Krugman thinks.
Late Update: This Krugman post from this morning suggests to me that he may think something like the Swedish model makes more sense but that the politics won't work and that given the severity of the crisis the not-as-terrible Dodd-Frank proposal is likely the way to go.
--Josh Marshall
Humiliated
Jonathan Weisman has a fascinating, even riveting narrative of what went down in Washington on Thursday as John McCain made his play to commandeer the high-level negotiations over the bailout bill. And TPM Reader TW called my attention to a passage that may help to explain the smoldering hostility that made it impossible for McCain even to make eye contact with Barack Obama during last night's debate.
We pick up Weisman in that big meeting at the White House ...
Pelosi said Obama would speak for the Democrats. Though later he would pepper Paulson with questions, according to a Republican in the room, his initial point was brief: "We've got to get something done."Bush turned to McCain, who joked, "The longer I am around here, the more I respect seniority." McCain then turned to Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to speak first.
Boehner was blunt. The plan Paulson laid out would not win the support of the vast majority of House Republicans. It had been improved on the edges, with an oversight board and caps on the compensation of participating executives. But it had to be changed at the core. He did not mention the insurance alternative, but Democrats did. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, pressed Boehner hard, asking him if he really intended to scrap the deal and start again.
No, Boehner replied, he just wanted his members to have a voice. Obama then jumped in to turn the question on his rival: "What do you think of the [insurance] plan, John?" he asked repeatedly. McCain did not answer.
One Republican in the room said it was clear that the Democrats came into the meeting with a "game plan" aimed at forcing McCain to choose between the administration and House Republicans. "They had taken McCain's request for a meeting and trumped it," said this source.
Congressional aides from both parties were standing in the lobby of the West Wing, unaware of the discord inside the Cabinet room, when McCain emerged alone, shook the hands of the Marines at the door and left. The aides were baffled. The plan had been for a bipartisan appearance before the media, featuring McCain, Obama and at least a firm statement in favor of intervention. Now, one of the leading men was gone.
Assuming this is an accurate portrayal of events, it may help explain some of what happened last night.
--Josh Marshall
Busted!
Last week, TPM and other news outlets were looking into whether McCain campaign manager Rick Davis had really cut his ties to the mega-lobby shop, Davis Manafort -- of which he is a part owner. Even though Davis insisted he was no longer drawing any salary from the firm, what David Kurtz and I were wondering was whether Davis had somehow redirected his salary to some other entity from which he could later profit from it or draw it back. Well, it seems Newsweek has finally caught up with Davis's flimflam ...
The McCain campaign told reporters the fees were irrelevant because Davis "separated from his consulting firm ... in 2006," according to the campaign's Web site, and he stopped drawing a salary from it. In fact, however, when Davis joined the campaign in January 2007, he asked that his $20,000-a-month salary be paid directly to Davis Manafort, two sources who asked not to be identified discussing internal campaign business told NEWSWEEK. Federal campaign records show the McCain campaign paid Davis Manafort $90,000 through July 2007, when a cash crunch prompted Davis and other top campaign officials to forgo their salaries and work as volunteers. Separately, another entity created and partly owned by Davis--an Internet firm called 3eDC, whose address was the same office building as Davis Manafort's--received payments from the McCain campaign for Web services, collecting $971,860 through March 2008.In an e-mail to NEWSWEEK, a senior McCain official said that when the campaign began last year, it signed a contract with Davis Manafort "in which we purchased all of [Davis's] time, and he agreed not to work for any other clients."
Frankly, it's even more convoluted than I'd imagined. But the McCain campaign's claim that anything done by Davis Manafort is irrelevant to the campaign since no one at the campaign has any tie to the firm now seems pretty ridiculous.
--Josh Marshall
Having Slept On It
In my initial reaction last night, I wrote that while I thought the debate was basically a draw, that amounted to a narrow win for Obama since foreign policy is supposed to be John McCain's forte. Now, after half a day, with more time to think about it and the benefit of seeing initial polling data and surveying other people's reactions, I'm only confirmed in that view.
In fact, I think it was a much bigger win for Obama than I was ready to figure last night. And that's for two basic reasons.
First, the pattern in the 2000 and 2004 presidential debates was essentially this: the Democrat generally won each debate on points and even in the snap polls of undecided voters. But there was usually some remark or bit of affect that -- ludicrous or not -- right-wing commentators and yakkers fixed in on and were able to parlay into the dominating conversation of the next few days. In this way, strong debate performances turned into weak debate performances.
I'm not seeing anything like that this time. Mainly that's because Obama just didn't make any mistakes. But I suspect it's also because there's now more meta-media parity between right and left.
Second was McCain's attitude. Whether it was contempt or condescension or some sort of fear or inability to -- in the most literal sense -- face Obama, it made McCain look small and angry. I apologize that I can't link to them because I don't remember who wrote it. But as someone wrote after the debate, for that kind of attitude to have 'worked' for McCain, Obama needed to come off as completely ignorant and unprepared. And I don't think even his harshest critics believe that is what happened. Roll it all together and Obama just seemed like a bigger person than McCain. And in a race in which the issue agenda and party identification already work strongly in Obama's favor, that's an advantage that is very hard for McCain to give up.
I know that many Obama supporters are disappointed that he passed on various opportunities to deliver a smackdown that McCain couldn't recover from. But having watched the guy for 18 months now, for better and worse, that's not who he is. What he did do though is stand on the stage with McCain for 90 minutes on what's supposed to be McCain's terrain. He had an easy command of the issues. And he didn't get rattled by any of McCain's attacks. For all those reasons, I think he had a much better night than McCain.
(ed.note: For some very acute debate analysis from a very experienced hand, see this post from James Fallows.)
--Josh Marshall
So Angry
McCain's unwillingness to make eye contact with Obama through the debate seems to be getting picked up by a lot of observers. Here's an interesting exchange on the subject between Chris Matthews and the Post's Eugene Robinson ...
Here's one comment we got from TPM Reader EO ...
As a psychotherapist and someone who treats people with anger management problems, we typically try to educate people that anger is often an emotion that masks other emotions. I think it's significant that McCain didn't make much, if any, eye contact because it suggests one of two things to me; he doesn't want to make eye contact because he is prone to losing control of his emotions if he deals directly with the other person, or, his anger masks fear and the eye contact may increase or substantiate the fear.I noticed him doing the same thing in the Republican primary debates. The perception observers are likely to have is that he is unwilling to acknowledge the opponent's legitimacy and/or is contemptuous of the opponent.
And here's another note from TPM Reader TB. I guess I'm really not sure quite how to characterize it ...
I think people really are missing the point about McCain's failure to look at Obama. McCain was afraid of Obama. It was really clear--look at how much McCain blinked in the first half hour. I study monkey behavior--low ranking monkeys don't look at high ranking monkeys. In a physical, instinctive sense, Obama owned McCain tonight and I think the instant polling reflects that.
So McCain may have given away his status as a low-ranking monkey. I'd never even considered monkey rank.
Late Monkey Science Update: In case anyone's wondering, I looked up TPM Reader TB's page at the University he teaches at. And no doubt about it, he appears to be a genuine monkey scientist, or to be more specific a researcher on social cognition and behavior in primates. I'd link to his page. But readers remain anonymous, save for their initials, until they tell us otherwise.
--Josh Marshall
The Diplomatic Preconditions Mini-Debate
One of the more interesting factual face-offs was this question about who said what about meeting enemies without preconditions and just what Henry Kissinger said on the topic. My own sense was that McCain got caught out and then tried to change what they were talking about. But it was sort of complicated since both were weaving in different issues over an extended passage of the debate. We compressed down the key exchanges on that issue -- the key five minutes from the roughly eight and a half minutes they discussed it ...
--Josh Marshall
Deep Thought
It's interesting to consider that once the election has ended and the excitement dies down, the most important result of this debate could turn out to be McCain's reviving the verb 'festoon' for a new generation of Americans.
--Josh Marshall
Time Flies While Tire Swinging
John King credits McCain with pulling down his TV ads for "about 72 hours" during the so-called "suspension." 72 hours? McCain only announced the suspension about 57 hours ago, and the best estimates from media buyers is that McCain was only off the air for about 24 hours (although readers have reported ads running in different parts of the country virtually the entire time). One day, three days, eh, who's counting?
--David Kurtz
The Snap Polls
There've been a few snap polls now. And they each seem to show that the respondents -- mainly independents -- thought Obama did better, in some cases by substantial margins. But I'd caution that these snap polls are often at variance with how people think each candidate did one or two days out. So while they're encouraging for Obama supporters, I'd say take them with a grain of salt.
My own sense remains that this was basically a tie between these two candidates, with both bringing their A game. But since this was the foreign policy debate, the topic on McCain has staked his campaign, I think the advantage is to Obama. Not on points, but on the net effect.
--Josh Marshall
Matthews
Seems like the no-eye-contact weirdness is starting to catch on.
Late Update: Oy, Matthews asked if it's weird that Obama was so "non-ethnic" tonight.
--Josh Marshall
Biden
Pretty measured debate, but on hammering McCain Biden was on fire ...
--Josh Marshall
Failed State?
I keep coming back to McCain's comment that Pakistan was a "failed state" when Musharraf hatched his coup d'etat. It's a vague term. But I don't think that adds up. It's always been the key fear that Pakistan, with its nuclear weapons, could become a failed state. It's got lots of the ingredients. But I don't think that adds up.
--Josh Marshall
Initial Reaction
My take on this debate was that both candidates made their basic arguments clearly. They stuck to the points they're making on the campaign trail. Neither of these guys are powerful debaters but both held up well. I didn't see many real gaffes or mistakes.
I said before the debate started that we should expect some outside the box, over the top antics from McCain. But that didn't really turn out to be true.
Through most of the debate -- as I was live-blogging -- I was thinking, Hmm, this is pretty much a draw, about what you'd expect with one person arguing McCain's agenda and another arguing Obama's. In that sense, I thought it was largely a tie. But McCain's whole campaign is based on his supposed superior knowledge and judgment on foreign policy. So I think that's a problem for McCain.
A few key points to consider that may pick up steam over the next hours and days.
McCain repeated what everyone agrees is a lie in claiming that Barack Obama has voted to increase taxes on people making as little as $42,000. Flat out lie.
He repeated his line about the wasteful earmark studying Bear DNA when it's now been revealed that his vice presidential running mate did the exact same thing -- only about seal DNA.
I said above that McCain didn't have any freak-out moments. But he did have that sneer and there did seem to be this thing where he was so contemptuous and angry at Obama that he couldn't get himself to make eye contact. I think we'll hear more about that.
Angry, angry, angry. Part of the key here is that McCain is clearly miffed that he even has to debate or run against Obama. He thinks it's an insult.
--Josh Marshall
Live First Prez Debate Blogging, Part II
10:07 PM ... China cleaned up its act before Nixon's overtures to China? No Cultural Revolution?
10:10 PM ... Good response from Obama on the topic of diplomacy and meetings with enemies. Most of what we've heard from maybe a half hour has been basically a draw, at least in debating terms. But this is strong.
10:12 PM ... Spain!!!
10:13 PM ... I'm not sure most people will know what the hell McCain means by "the Dear Leader".
10:21 PM ... I'm not sure it will resonate with people -- but let me just stipulate that McCain is completely nuts on Ukraine and all the former Soviet Republics on Russia's borders. Okay, I've said it.
10:26 PM ... I haven't focused on this myself. But a number of readers are writing in to say that McCain has not looked at or made eye contact with Sen. Obama once this evening. Have you seen that?
(Todd Gitlin adds some more on this point.)
10:34 PM ... McCain running for the Presidency of the Surge.
--Josh Marshall
Debate Open Thread
We set up a thread at TPMCafe for tonight's debate. No bailout/financial crisis excuses should keep you from participating.
--David Kurtz
Live First Prez Debate Blogging
9:06 PM ... Wait, didn't McCain just say that he got the House Republicans to take part in the negotiations when he seemed to lead them out of the negotiations?
9:11 PM ... Interesting the degree to which, so far, neither Obama or McCain want to engage each other.
9:12 PM ... I guess Lehrer noticed the same thing.
9:13 PM ... Friend points out, Obama has flag pin; McCain has none.
9:15 PM ... Three millions for seal DNA! None for Bears!
9:21 PM ... So far I think this is basically a draw, a lot of jousting, not a lot of hits. But Obama seems to have come into the debate with a much clearer strategy.
9:25 PM ... McCain's been called out on that $42k lie a hundred times. Telling it again.
9:33 PM ... "How about a spending freeze?" Just tossing it out as a possibility?
9:34 PM ... Solar, biodiesel and whatever the other crap is ...
9:34 PM ... Can we elect Lehrer?
9:35 PM ... Good line from Obama on hard decisions but also knowing what our basic values are.
9:45 PM ... You were wrong, you were wrong, you were wrong? This is the kind of situation where McCain might flip out.
9:50 PM ... Pretty evenly matched debaters.
9:53 PM ... McCain's the voice of considered rhetoric during foreign policy crises?
9:56 PM ... Exactly, Barack ... (Extinction for North Korea, Bomb, Bomb, Iran, etc.)
--Josh Marshall
Rattlesnake
Looking forward to what we can expect from tonight's debate, the most telling points are situation and character. The polls for the moment look good for Barack Obama. And what he needs to prove in the context of the entire campaign is that he has the stature and heft to be President of the United States. That and Obama's character both suggest that he'll try to put in a solid, reassuring performance rather than aiming for a knock-out punch or some game-changing moment.
Meanwhile, everything about John McCain's character and the situation he finds himself in suggests he'll do precisely the opposite.
Whether we call it John McCain's freak-outta-palooza or just some freewheeling maverickism, everything John McCain has done over recent months and especially and with a new intensity over the last week has been geared to upsetting the applecart and creating some event which trips up Obama and shifts the trajectory of the campaign. Some of us may see it in a negative light or a positive light, but descriptively, I don't think many people on either side of the political aisle would disagree with that analysis.
Add to that the issue of character. A high stakes campaign brings out the essence of an individual. And campaigns, in almost every case, are defined by the candidate. With these rapid-fire rash and erratic actions, I think we're seeing the real John McCain. It may be filtered through and packaged by Steve Schmidt or Salter or Davis. But fundamentally I believe this all stems from John McCain.
(To add to the miss, note this pool report filed as McCain headed for the plane to Mississippi tonight with Rudy Giuliani in tow -- the "general atmosphere is utter confusion." Not conducive to going into a high stakes debate. But very much in line with McCain's recent affect and behavior.)
Put those two factors together -- recent behavior/strategy and fundamental character -- and I think you have to expect a John McCain who is unpredictable, possibly uncontrollable and looking for any moment to launch a dramatic ambush or confrontation that will amount to his ultimate roll of the dice.
--Josh Marshall
Yo, Nice Try
McCain spokesperson Nicole Wallace tries to move the bar for why McCain can debate tonight even though the bailout is not resolved, and MSNBC's David Shuster will have none of it:
--David Kurtz
Ya Think?
From Politico ...
A growing number of Republicans are expressing concern about Sarah Palin's uneven -- and sometimes downright awkward -- performances in her limited media appearances.Conservative columnists Kathleen Parker, a former Palin supporter, says the vice presidential nominee should step aside. Kathryn Jean Lopez, writing on the conservative National Review, says "that's not a crazy suggestion" and that "something's gotta change."
Tony Fabrizio, a GOP strategist, says Palin's recent CBS appearance isn't disqualifying but is certainly alarming. "You can't continue to have interviews like that and not take on water."
--Josh Marshall
Live Debate Coverage
Regulars must already know. But as usual we'll be bringing you live debate coverage this evening right here at TPM -- pre-debate reporting, live blogging of the debate and video clips of the key moments as they pop.
--Josh Marshall
Swing State Surge
Over at TPM Election Central we've crunched the numbers on party affiliation in key swing states and found, as we expected, a substantial increase in Democratic voter registration since 2004 compared to the Republicans.
--David Kurtz
It Could Be Worse ...
What if Sarah Palin were President and trying to bailout the economy? Here she is waxing ineloquent to Katie Couric on what the alternatives to the current plan before Congress might be:
--David Kurtz
Monday is the Day
TPMmuckraker has learned that the long-awaited report by the Justice Department's Inspector General on its investigation into the U.S. Attorney firings of 2006-07 will be released Monday morning.
--David Kurtz
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--Josh Marshall
I'm Confused
John McCain is saying that now that he's gotten the bailout negotiations back on track he can resume his campaign and show up tonight at the debate. But every news report I'm seeing says they were moving along smoothly until John McCain showed up and they fell apart.
Who can help me here?
--Josh Marshall
O'Reilly: Jump! MSNBC: How High?
MSNBC yanks a TV ad from Dem-leaning independent groups today after Bill O'Reilly called out NBC corporate execs on his show last night.
--David Kurtz
We Interrupt This Crisis ...
I know we're focusing on the collapse of our financial system. But the live fire fights we're getting into with the Pakistani military would seem to throw our alliance with them into some question, no?
--Josh Marshall
No Likin' It
Tracking polls are inherently volatile. But the initial results suggest that McCain's suspension/debate cancellation stunt has been a big bust.
--Josh Marshall
Mettle
Didn't Barack Obama just make John McCain flinch?
Late Update: Numerous readers are informing me that I am incorrect -- that McCain didn't 'flinch' but rather 'blinked'. I can live with that.
--Josh Marshall
Gonzo, Gonzo, Gonzo
Murray Waas has a new report out on one particular aspect of the DOJ Inspector General's investigation into former Attorney General and former White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales:
In reauthorizing the [warrantless] surveillance program over the objections of his own Justice Department, President Bush later claimed to have relied on notes made by Gonzales about a meeting that had taken place the day before (March 10), in which Gonzales and Vice President Cheney had met with eight congressional leaders--also known as the "Gang of Eight"--who receive briefings about covert intelligence programs. According to Gonzales's notes, the congressional leaders had said in the meeting that they wanted the surveillance program to continue despite the attorney general's refusal to certify that it was legal.But four of the congressional leaders present at the meeting say that's not true; they never encouraged the White House to sidestep the objections of the attorney general and continue the program without his approval.
Investigators are skeptical of the notes because Gonzales did not write them until days after the meeting with the congressional leaders, and he wrote them after both Bush and Gonzales had together signed a reauthorization of the surveillance program.
Late Update: Waas also reports, in a second piece, that Gonzo has admitted to investigators that President Bush directed him to go to the then-Attorney General John Ashcroft's hospital bedside in that dramatic late night showdown over the warrantless wiretapping program. Gonzales has previously refused to answer congressional questions on that point in this testimonial trainwreck from July 2007:
--David Kurtz
Let's Get Ready to RUMBLE ...
Stunt over.
McCain resumes all campaign activities. Will debate tonight.
Fox News falling all over itself to explain why the campaign ploy that led to torpedoed bailout plan was an "accomplishment" for McCain. Embarrassing even to watch.
--David Kurtz
Exit Strategy
How does McCain justify showing up at tonight's debate even if a bailout plan hasn't passed? Move the bar a bit.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) now says: "What's more important than anything that when we go to Mississippi tonight, both candidates can say that the Congress is working ..."
--David Kurtz
What Next?
Slate predicts McCain's next 10 Hail Mary stunts.
(My fave: "Challenges Obama to suspend campaign so they both can go and personally drill for oil offshore.")
--David Kurtz
Deep Thought
Would you trust John McCain to run a small or medium sized business?
--Josh Marshall
Country First!
Ed Rollins dissects the motives of the House Republicans who McCain is siding with to derail bailout plan:
--David Kurtz